How many teams will make the Division 1 football playoffs in the Southern Section?
There could be eight teams. There could be 12 teams. There could even be four or 16 teams. Right now, not even CIF Southern Section officials know how many teams will be in the Division 1 football playoffs because divisions are not formed until the current regular season is complete.
After the final games of the regular season are played on Friday night, the Section will make the determination ahead of Sunday morning's bracket release. While it's impossible to know how many teams will make the D1 bracket before it's published, there are some important details to keep in mind ahead of Sunday.
WHY IS DIVISION 1 NOT SET AT A CERTAIN NUMBER OF TEAMS?
The 2022 CIF Southern Section playoff bulletin reads: "In 2022, all divisions will be 16-team brackets, with the exception of Division 1. Bracket size for Division 1 will be determined after the regular season has been completed. It will be the responsibility of the Commissioner, and his staff to establish the pairings in each first round game for all divisions."
As stated, the Section office, using CalPreps final regular season rankings, has the final say on how many teams will make Division 1. In 2019, the Division 1 Southern Section playoffs had eight teams, but 24 teams were grouped into Division 1/2 ahead of the regular season. When Week 10 ended that year, the top eight teams as determined by the Section, qualified for the Division 1 playoffs and the remaining 16 teams competed in Division 2.
In 2020, the Southern Section Council overwhelmingly approved a proposal to use CalPreps rankings to group teams into playoff divisions at the end of the regular season because it's the most accurate way possible to formulate divisions only utilizing current regular season results. That change led to the Southern Section determining how many teams make the D1 playoffs based on competitive equity and that's where things stand today. Under this model, the Section decided on an eight team Division 1 bracket in 2021.
WHY COULD THERE BE A 12-TEAM FIELD THIS YEAR?
Because of competitive equity.
As we wrote off the top, there could be anywhere from a four-team Division 1 field to a 16-team field. There's been a lot of chatter about a 12-team field lately as well and that's also a possibility.
From a competitive equity standpoint, a 12-team field makes sense for a few reasons. Remember, competitive equity doesn't mean that every team in a given division can win the title, it means that any team in a given division can be competitive with the teams they're grouped with.
Right now, JSerra is ranked at No. 11 in the Southern Section. When JSerra took on Section No. 1 Mater Dei in Trinity League play on Sept. 30, Mater Dei won 21-13 in a game that was very competitive. JSerra led for much of the first half.
JSerra plays Orange Lutheran, the Section's current No. 8 team, on Friday. That's a game to pay attention to for a few reasons.
If Orange Lutheran wins and JSerra stays at No. 11 or drops to No. 12 in the Section's CalPreps rankings, then there'd be an example from this season where the No. 11 or No. 12 team in the Section gave the No. 1 team a competitive game. This is pure speculation, but that could lead to a 12-team bracket.
If JSerra wins, they'd most likely jump up into the top eight, which may result in a different number of teams making Division 1, or maybe not ...
As stated, Southern Section officials don't currently know how many teams will make Division 1 because the regular season will not be complete until after Friday night’s contests. Those results coupled with the final regular season CalPreps rankings will determine where the Section decides to draw the Division 1/2 line.
WHERE DOES DRAWING THE LINE MAKE SENSE?
At this time, no one, including the Section office, knows the true answer to that question, but looking for decent sized drop offs in the CalPreps rankings (the third column from the right) may help to make an accurate guess. Here's how the current top 16 looks ratings wise.
1. Mater Dei: 93.0
2. St. John Bosco: 85.9
3. Corona Centennial: 74.4
4. Los Alamitos: 64.6
5. Long Beach Poly: 64.3
6. Mission Viejo: 64.1
7. Edison: 58.1
8. Orange Lutheran: 57.0
9. Chaminade: 57.0
10. Santa Margarita: 55.4
11. JSerra: 53.7
12. Inglewood: 53.4
13. Gardena Serra: 52.8
14. Oak Hills: 52.4
15. Bishop Amat: 51.2
16. Oaks Christian: 48.9
These numbers will of course change, but let's pretend these are the final regular season ratings. Based on the numbers above, where does it make sense to draw the Division 1/2 line?
The top two teams (Mater Dei and St. John Bosco) are ranked 18.6 and 11.5 units ahead of No. 3 Corona Centennial. There is a clear gap after the top two, but there won't be a two-team Division 1 bracket. That's unrealistic.
There's a 9.8 unit gap between No. 3 Corona Centennial and No. 4 Los Alamitos. Could there be a three team D1 field? Again, that's unrealistic.
The next gap of note (in our opinion) comes between No. 6 Mission Viejo and No. 7 Edison. No. 4 Los Alamitos, No. 5 Long Beach Poly and No. 6 Mission Viejo are all separated by decimal points. The gap between No. 6 and No. 7 is six units. Could that be a good spot to draw the line? In our eyes, yes, but that would take an additional playoff game away from St. John Bosco and Mater Dei who would get opening round byes in this scenario as the top two seeds.
The gap between eight and nine is currently negligible with Orange Lutheran barely ahead of Chaminade. Would the Section draw the line there if No. 8 and No. 9 looked that way after Friday?
The gap between No. 12 and No. 13 is currently .6 units. Does that justify a 12-team Division 1 or would that difference cause the Section to go with a different number of teams?
These are the questions Southern Section officials will face over the weekend. It will be fascinating to see where the line is officially drawn come Sunday morning.
