Predicting the Oregon 6A football playoffs: Game-by-game bracket picks
The OSAA 6A football playoffs kick off this week, which means it's time to make predictions.
Here's Andrew Nemec's picks and thoughts for the entire bracket - from round 1 to the state championship game.
ROUND 1
No. 16 West Salem at No. 1 West Linn — West Linn is absolutely loaded and should win convincingly.
But West Salem deserves tremendous credit for its regular season-ending 42-21 win at Sheldon that allowed them to get into the championship bracket.
That was one of the more impressive victories of the final week.
No. 9 Lake Oswego at No. 8 Jesuit — This has a chance to be a really good game, and to some extent that’s unfortunate.
Both Jesuit and Lake Oswego would be 40-point favorites over No. 7 Ida B. Wells and the OSAA has no excuse for its formula or its bracket.
If it's this broken, change it!
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised with either team winning, but I think Lake Oswego guts out the win.
No. 12 Sheldon at No. 5 Lakeridge — Lately, Lakeridge has been playing its best ball in several years.
So, I feel comfortable picking them even given some previous uneven performances in postseason play (something to monitor).
Sheldon’s season-closing 42-21 loss to No. 16 West Salem dropped its stock at the wrong time.
No. 13 North Medford at No. 4 Central Catholic — Central Catholic should have been the No. 2 seed.
Since the end of last season the entire Oregon high school football community has said they can’t wait to see who will win when West Linn and Central Catholic finally face off.
It’s going to come earlier than it should.
But there’s little standing in the way of that semifinal showdown.
No. 14 Oregon City at No. 3 Sherwood — Sherwood
Sherwood’s defense hasn’t given up a point since Week 1 (Liberty scored on a defensive touchdown last week).
The Bowmen are the state’s best non-TRL/non-private school team by a country mile.
No. 11 Tigard at No. 6 South Salem — South Salem
This has all the makings of a great matchup.
South Salem is undefeated, but has faced just one top-16 team all year - a win over No. 16 West Salem.
Tigard, on the other hand is 4-5 and has lost five straight against truly elite competition — No. 14 Oregon City, No. 5 Lakeridge, No. 1 West Linn, No. 9 Lake Oswego and No. 2 Tualatin.
If South Salem is for real, and a true threat, they’ve got to beat Tigard badly… like the other contenders already have during the regular season.
But South Salem still has questions, so I'm not sure that happens.
Plus, Tigard is a quality team that played a brutal schedule.
This game could be much better than it looks on paper.
My confidence level in this pick is low because there's a lot of unknowns coming in to this one.
No. 10 Nelson at No. 7 Ida B. Wells — Nelson
Unfortunately, the PIL is down worse than it has ever been.
Ida B. Wells is 8-1 on the year, but feasted on the rest of the PIL and played just two non-league games — a 46-24 loss to mediocre 5A Hillsboro and a 46-43 squeaker over No. 37 Century, who finished the year 1-8.
Nelson, on the other hand, is 7-2 with its only losses coming to West Linn and Central Catholic, the state’s best two teams.
The Guardians have had a season worth building upon, but comparing them to the rest of the top 10 teams in the state is unfair to the program.
Nelson should be considered a 30-point favorite despite being the lower seed.
Oops!
No. 15 Roosevelt at No. 2 Tualatin — Tualatin
How in the world 2 PIL teams made the championship bracket and only one Metro League team got in is beyond me!
I've talked to dozens of folks in the high school football community and have yet to talk to a single one who actually likes the consolation Columbia Cup for teams 17-32.
But if you're going to have it, it makes sense to give the PIL teams a chance to actually win a game (or two) against that level of competition.
Instead, both Ida B. Wells and Roosevelt will get absolutely blasted in Round 1.
Tualatin is a loaded squad, while Roosevelt lost to Ida B. Wells 36-8 and No. 26 North Salem 35-6.
The Timberwolves can pick the score, and regular season MVP Jayden Fortier should have a jaw-dropping first half.
QUARTERFINALS
No. 9 Lake Oswego at No. 1 West Linn — West Linn
West Linn is an all-time juggernaut and beat Lake Oswego 49-14 on the road earlier this season.
Lake Oswego coach Steve Coury is a legend, but even he is going to have a hard time devising a gameplan that flips the result by five scores in the second meeting.
No. 5 Lakeridge at No. 4 Central Catholic — Central Catholic
Lakeridge is playing its best ball at the right time, but Central Catholic has a special roster and may be the only true challenger to West Linn this season.
The Rams roll!
No. 6 South Salem at No. 3 Sherwood — Sherwood
On paper, it’s the state’s best defense (Sherwood) against the state’s best passing attack (South Salem).
But Sherwood’s defense has proven a little bit more - and has all-state-caliber quarterback Kasen Covert leading the charge on the other side of the ball.
I still don’t know what to make of South Salem.
Last year, a No. 9-seed Saxons squad entered the playoffs with similar questions, then lost to No. 8 Sherwood by 42 in the first round.
Make no mistake, this year's version is better, but are they "for real" or were they again aided by a cakewalk schedule?
The Round 1 matchup against Tigard will provide a clearer picture, but without the benefit of seeing that matchup it’s just hard to predict a state semifinal run for a team that hasn’t played a top-15 team all year.
No. 10 Nelson at No. 2 Tualatin — Tualatin
Tualatin has won back-to-back state titles in basketball and has a dominant collection of athletes rolling through its sports programs right now.
The Timberwolves were the second-best team in the Three Rivers League, which boasts roughly half of the state’s top 12 teams.
I like this Nelson team quite a bit, but Tualatin is just too talented.
SEMIFINALS
No. 4 Central Catholic at No. 1 West Linn — West Linn
West Linn and Central Catholic compete in the “semifinal championship” for the right to win the state title the following week.
These aren’t just the best two teams in Oregon, they are the best two teams in the entire Northwest and have proven it with big wins over Washington’s best schools.
The OSAA botched this one in an all-time blunder that will be hard to live down, and should lead to changes to its rankings formula.
West Linn is a little bit deeper, so I'll lean that way.
Still, I don't feel great about it, especially with Central Catholic quarterback Cru Newman leading the charge.
This will be one of the most talent-rich games in modern Oregon high school football history.
No. 3 Sherwood at No. 2 Tualatin — Tualatin
This feels like a really, really solid third-place matchup.
And that's on the OSAA.
Five of the state's top seven teams, and maybe even six of the top eight, reside in the upper half of the bracket, so Tualatin and Sherwood could breeze to this point.
Sherwood’s defense has been outstanding, but hasn’t played anybody of note all year.
Tualatin, on the other hand, has run through a gauntlet, and even survived the imposing Three Rivers League with its back-up signal-caller.
Tualatin starting quarterback Nolan Keeney is a true dual-threat weapon and may be back for the entire postseason after recovering from an injury.
This game should be very, very close, and I honestly don’t feel good about a pick either way.
Sherwood-Tualatin should be an excellent semifinal matchup.
STATE CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 2 Tualatin at No. 1 West Linn — West Linn
The OSAA gets its 1-2 matchup, so they did a good job, right?
West Linn beat Tualatin 37-0 earlier this season and led 20-0 in the first eight minutes before calling off the dogs.
Tualatin is a genuinely good football team, led by Gatorade Player of the Year favorite Jayden Fortier, but we've seen this before.
West Linn and Central Catholic are just truly elite programs this season.
If, in fact, Central Catholic gets by West Linn, the Rams would be heavy favorites in the title game as well.
