Bracket Breakdown: Game-by-game analysis, picks in WIAA Class 4A state football tournament

It is unusual to see the seven-time 4A KingCo football champion Bothell Cougars as a lower seed set to travel in the opening round of the WIAA Class 4A state playoffs.

Especially after suffering just one loss - 21-3 to Eastlake (the tournament No. 2 seed) in the league championship game.

But Bothell, the No. 9 seed in the state playoffs, will be on the visiting sideline Friday night, taking on eight-seeded Glacier Peak at Veterans Memorial Stadium in Snohomish.

"People are going, 'Hey, you are not at home, are you bummed?'" said longtime Bothell coach Tom Bainter, who led the Cougars to the 2014 state championship. "It is just the way it went."

In the early going, first-year quarterback Logan Lacio - who moved to the area from Hawaii in the offseason - was efficient in running the offense. The team scored 40 or more points against playoff teams (Moses Lake, Tahoma, North Creek) in three of the first four games.

Also, talented junior Bryce Kooy, the 4A Kingco's lone 1,000-yard rusher, was leaned on heavily as the Cougars racked up a league-best 26 rushing touchdowns.

"We had rhythm early," Bainter said.

But over the past month, the pendulum has swung the other way. Right now, it's Bothell's defense that is leading the way - and the offense is largely lagging off that early pace.

What happened?

Bainter presented an interesting (and logical) explanation - bad weather.

"Our quarterback from Hawaii does not like rain and the wind," Bainter said.

Make no mistake, Lacio - who injured his knee in the league title game - running the show gives the Cougars the best opportunity to advance in the state playoffs. But he has to get back to being more like the reliable dual threat of earlier in the season.

Bainter said the team is doing everything possible to try and make Lacio feel as comfortable as he did in the first six weeks.

"I am really proud of him, and think he's done a great job," Bainter said. "But he did not have much pressure early in the season. Now there is pressure. And as much as you'd like to stay it's just a game, this is a different part of it."

(Listen to the episode here, leave a review on Apple Podcasts and subscribe wherever you get podcasts)

Editor’s note: Here’s a game-by-game breakdown, including top individual performers, outlook and score prediction, of this weekend’s 2021 WIAA Class 4A football round-of-16 matchups.

NO. 11 MOSES LAKE CHIEFS (7-3) vs. NO. 6 GONZAGA PREP BULLPUPS (10-0)

7 p.m. Friday at Gonzaga Prep, Spokane

Statistical leaders: For Moses Lake - QB Brock Clark (165-258, 1,954 yards, 19 TDs), RB Sergio Guzman (165 carries, 915 yards, nine TDs; 34 catches, 298 yards, four TDs), WR Asher Lindgren (42 catches, 594 yards, two TDs) and DB Jordan Nelson (67.5 tackles, 6.5 TFL). For Gonzaga Prep - QB Ryan McKenna (26-43, 449 yards, eight TDs; 153 carries, 1,329 yards, 18 TDs), RB Matteo Saccomano (81 carries, 578 yards, seven TDs), WR Howell (six catches, 163 yards, four TDs) and Luciano Reynolds.

What to watch for: Who was Moses Lake's last state-playoff opponent in 2017? It was the Bullpups, who won 35-21. Things are different for the Chiefs under new coach Brett Jay, who are more dynamic on the perimeter, led by WR Asher Lindgren. But if you haven't faced Bullpups' QB Ryan McKenna, and know how slippery he is in the triple-option attack - by the time you understand, he is long gone. And so will the 4A GSL champions.

Pick: Gonzaga Prep, 34-18.

NO. 14 RICHLAND BOMBERS (8-2) vs. NO. 3 LAKE STEVENS VIKINGS (8-0)

5 p.m. Saturday at Lake Stevens High School

Statistical leaders: For Richland - QB Cameron Kitchens (2,000 yards, 20 TDs), RB Elijah Rodriguez (800 yards), WR Tanner Schuster and LB Isaiah Galvis (50 tackles). For Lake Stevens - QB Grayson Murren (68-93, 1,293 yards, 18 TDs), RB Jayden Limar (133 carries, 1,144 yards, 14 TDs), WR Drew Carter (41 catches, 827 yards, 12 TDs) and LB Madison Wynkoop (93 tackles).

What to watch for: It is a little peculiar, in the midst of these programs' rich state-playoff histories, that these two teams have never met up. That changes Saturday as the Bombers make a same-day trek to Snohomish County. Richland's defensive front has to be disruptive, not only of the Vikings' newfound "Wildcat" attack with RB Jayden Limar, but of any semblance of a passing attack without QB Grayson Murren (leg).

Pick: Lake Stevens, 29-14.

NO. 10 SKYVIEW STORM (8-2) vs. NO. 7 SUMNER SPARTANS (9-1)

7 p.m. Saturday at Sunset Chev Stadium, Sumner

Statistical leaders: For Skyview – QB Niko Arriola (115-219, 1,426 yards, 15 TDs), RB Gabe Martin (117 carries, 725 yards, six TDs), WR Teddy Beaver (37 catches, 494 yards, three TDs) and LB Jalen Salavea (84 tackles, four TFL). For Sumner - QB Bo Carlson (137-182, 1,875 yards, 25 TDs), RB Eric Buck (69 carries, 518 yards, nine TDs), WR Matthew Spurbeck (37 catches, 487 yards, six TDs) and LB Eric Buck (65 tackles).

What to watch for: This is a gut-punch special between two teams who don't mind putting a hurt on opponents, especially in the trenches. And they are both without their most dynamic tailback (Skyview's Jaydin Knapp, Sumner's Peyton Wing). But Spartans have a knack of putting the clamps on opposing power rushing attacks - and they possess the game's most versatile offensive weapon, too, in dual-threat QB Bo Carlson.

Pick: Sumner, 20-13.

NO. 15 EASTMONT WILDCATS (8-2) vs. NO. 2 EASTLAKE WOLVES (10-0)

7 p.m. Friday at Eastlake High School, Sammamish

Statistical leaders: For Eastmont - QB Luke Gale (55-122, 931 yards, nine TDs), RB Gunnar Peterson (134 carries, 970 yards, 14 TDs), WR Brooks Trovato (30 catches, 576 yards, six TDs). For Eastlake - QB Parker Barrysmith (120-197, 1,836 yards, 22 TDs), RB Jack Peterson (93 carries, 632 yards, 10 TDs), TE Griffin Miller (33 catches, 553 yards, eight TDs) and LB Harry Reid (60.5 tackles, 8.5 TFL).

What to watch for: Eastmont is in the 4A playoffs for a third consecutive season - but hasn't won a state-playoff game since 1986 (win over West Valley of Spokane). The Wildcats will attack all quadrants with their modified Wing-T attack - and hope to catch this aggressive Eastlake team out of position. But Wolves have distinct pass-catching advantage on outside, and QB Parker Barrysmith could cash in like a millionaire down the field.

Pick: Eastlake, 38-12.

NO. 12 PUYALLUP VIKINGS (8-2) vs. NO. 5 CAMAS PAPERMAKERS (6-4)

5:30 p.m. Saturday at Doc Harris Stadium, Camas

Statistical leaders: For Puyallup - QB Micah Balzarini (118-202, 1,984 yards, 13 TDs), RB Ryan Cramer (133 carries, 850 yards, 14 TDs), WR Jordan Dwyer (59 catches, 1,083 yards, 10 TDs) and LB/DB Wyatt Gordon (92 tackles). For Camas - QB Taylor Ioane (92-184, 1,166 yards, nine TDs), RB Jon Schultz (142 carries, 656 yards, three TDs), WR Mark Thorkelson (13 catches, 327 yards, four TDs) and LB Luke Jamison.

What to watch for: At this point, Puyallup must be tired of seeing a 4A GSHL opponent in the state playoffs - including the Papermakers, who eliminated the Vikings from the 2019 postseason. Both of these teams have played their best football in the second half of the season. And while the Camas defense rightfully grabs headlines, the Vikings' six-game winning streak has also been fueled by limiting strong offenses.

Pick: Camas, 24-23.

NO. 13 NORTH CREEK JAGUARS (6-4) vs. NO. 4 KAMIAKIN BRAVES (10-0)

4 p.m. Saturday at Lampson Stadium, Kennewick

Statistical leaders: For North Creek - QB Kennedy McGill (163-240, 2042 yards, 24 TDs; 107 carries, 803 yards, 15 TDs), ATH Rocco Traore (76 carries, 392 yards, three TDs; six receiving TDs), WR Jamal Omar (39 catches, 553 yards, five TDs) and LB Eric Lee (81 tackles, eight TFL). For Kamiakin - QB Henry Mercado (144-229, 2,049 yards, 33 TDs; 46 carries, 270 yards, three TDs), RB Luis Salgado (135 carries, 1,121 yards, 19 TDs), WR Payton Graham (730 receiving yards, 11 TDs; 1,333 all-purpose/passing yards, 16 total TDs; six INT on defense), LB Luis Salgado (73 tackles, 15 TFL).

What to watch for: This has the makings of a fun matchup full of fireworks. No player was better in the 4A KingCo than QB Kennedy McGill, who snatched the school's first state berth with a fantastic-finish touchdown pass in a district win over Kennedy Catholic. But the MCC-winning Braves have balance, tradition and arguably the state's most adaptable playmaker in WR/RB/QB/S/PK Payton Graham.

Pick: Kamiakin, 43-28.

NO. 9 BOTHELL COUGARS (9-1) vs. NO. 8 GLACIER PEAK GRIZZLIES (7-2)

7 p.m. Friday at Veterans Memorial Stadium, Snohomish

Statistical leaders: For Bothell (through nine games) - QB Logan Lacio (114-175, 1,606 yards, 16 TDs), RB Bryce Kooy (162 carries, 932 yards, 12 TDs) and WR Sam Stewart (25 catches, 503 yards, seven TDs). For Glacier Peak - QB River Lien (99-159, 1,542 yards, 18 TDs), RB Trey Leckner (136 carries, 902 yards, 14 TDs; 16 catches, 325 yards, three TDs) and LB Michael Fant (51 tackles, four sacks).

What to watch for: This could very well be the best game of the first round. Why? Both defenses have played well in the final month of the season - and both offenses have been a little unpredictable. Ball control might be an emphasis, and the Cougars (Bryce Kooy) and Grizzlies (Trey Leckner) both have workhorse tailbacks who can break off a big play at any time. First team to 20 points wins.

Pick: Glacier Peak, 19-14.

NO. 16 KENTWOOD CONQUERORS (5-4) vs. NO. 1 GRAHAM-KAPOWSIN EAGLES (10-0)

7 p.m. Friday at Art Crate Stadium, Spanaway

Statistical leaders: For Kentwood - QB Renat Mamikonyan Jr. (750 passing yards, 200 rushing yards), RB Antoine Lee (950 rushing yards, eight TDs), WR Omari Williams (23 catches) and LB Elijah Mareko (88 tackles). For Graham-Kapowsin - QB Joshua Wood (119-168, 1,712 yards, 25 TDs), RB Zackary Lee (70 carries, 690 yards, six TDs), WR Julian Mason (47 catches, 692 yards, six TDs) and LB Jalen Davenport (54 tackles, five TFL).

What to watch for: If there was anybody who could see a path to stardom for Graham-Kapowsin QB Joshua Wood, it was Kentwood coach Mike Bush. He coached the teenager on a 7-on-7 team as a seventh grader. Now, it's up the Conquerors to try and stop him - and their defense has been stellar from the midseason on. But the Eagles have too much firepower, fortitude and confidence to be stopped this early.

Pick: Graham-Kapowsin, 37-13.

(Featured file photo by Vince Miller)