Oregon high school football playoffs: ‘The eliminator’ prediction tool says the 6A champion will be ...
Before each of the past three OSAA Class 6A postseasons, the eliminator has examined the playoff field and correctly projected the winner.
Before we look at this year’s field, a refresher about the eliminator tool.
It uses relevant precedent mixed with nuanced observations and reasoning to pare the field to a progressively smaller population, ending with a champion. In 2019 and 2021, it correctly tapped Central Catholic, and it was correct again last season with West Linn.
Let’s dig in and look at the criteria for advancing in the eliminator’s examination:
- Scoring at least 40 points in at least five regular-season games
Looking at the past nine OSAA Class 6A champions, all but one reached 40 points in five or more regular-season games. And really, this test is batting nine for the past nine.
In 2018, Lake Oswego scored 40 or more points four times and posted 39 in another — in a game against the reigning state champion. Showing the flexible thinking inherent in the eliminator, it recognized the merit of Lake Oswego’s achievements in 2018 and advanced the Lakers’ token to the next space on the board. (Jesuit of Southwest Portland was the eliminator's projected winner in 2018; the Crusaders were eliminated in the semifinals by Lake Oswego.)
This season, six teams meet the requirement of scoring at least 40 points in five games. Another school, Roosevelt of North Portland, scored 40-plus four times and had a 38-point outing at McDaniel of Northeast Portland. The Roughriders scored four defensive touchdowns in that game, led 30-0 at halftime and conceivably could have very easily reached 40 points.
Roosevelt moves on.
North Medford, Nelson of Happy Valley and Sheldon of Eugene also had four 40-point games, but none had an obvious additional game in which staying under 40 points appeared to be a choice.
Those three schools, as well as Tualatin, Lake Oswego, Jesuit, Oregon City, Lakeridge and Tigard, are eliminated.
Special mention is made of South Salem, which reached 40 points in all nine regular-season games. Clackamas in 2017 is the only other school dating to 2013 that has hit 40 in nine regular-season games in a season.
- Perfect league record
The past nine teams that went on to win the Class 6A championship entered the playoffs with an undefeated league record.
Two of the remaining teams — West Salem (5-2 in the South Central Football Conference) and Roosevelt (6-1 Portland Interscholastic League) — fail to advance in the eliminator.
- Coach’s tenure
A common trait of Class 6A champions has been a coach with at least 10 years of experience in that position at that school.
Two schools get weeded out here. Keith Bennett has been at Wells of Southwest Portland for three seasons. Mark Gribble is in his second season leading the Sherwood program.
Scott Dufault has been head coach at South Salem for 23 seasons, and Steve Pyne has been at Central Catholic in Southeast Portland for 21 seasons.
West Linn’s Jon Eagle is in his second season as head coach at that school. After West Linn won the Class 6A championship in Eagle’s first season at the school, though, it’s an easy decision for the eliminator to keep the Lions among the contenders. (Also, as we noted in previous versions of the eliminator, West Linn won the 6A title in 2016, in then-coach Chris Miller’s third season; that deviation from the 10-year rule gives this program a pass from the tenure requirement.)
- Strength of schedule
We’re down to three teams: Central Catholic, South Salem and West Linn.
Let’s look at how many of the contenders’ opponents made the OSAA postseason (in order of OSAA rank):
No. 1 West Linn: 8 in championship bracket + 0 in Columbia Cup = 8
No. 4 Central Catholic: 2 + 3 = 5
No. 7 South Salem: 1 + 4 = 5
The eliminator understands that a team can play only the teams on its schedule — a schedule that might have been made well in advance. Still, having faced a playofflike schedule before the playoffs prepares a team for the playoffs.
There’s also this: Each of the past four state champions ended the regular season with a game against a team that made the 32-team OSAA Class 6A field. Again, how a team’s schedule unfolds is out of the team’s hands, but the eliminator believes in entering the postseason after a challenging regular-season finale.
That rules out Central Catholic.
Between South Salem and West Linn, we’ll look at data related to the scores of their games. As we’ve stated many times, we don’t want to reward piling on overmatched opponents, but we want to recognize that margin of victory does play a role in determining a team’s quality.
Average margin of victory
South Salem: 35.8 points
West Linn: 35.0 points
Average points allowed
South Salem: 14.9
West Linn: 10.9
So, a slight advantage to South Salem on scoring margin, and a bigger advantage to West Linn on points allowed.
That difference, combined with an undeniably more difficult schedule — all eight in-state opponents are in the 16-team championship bracket — gives West Linn the lion’s share of the evidence.
West Linn, for the second season in a row, is the pick to win the OSAA Class 6A championship.
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