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Prediction: Oregon Ducks to land ESPN 5-star quarterback

A look at the fast-changing quarterback landscape for Oregon

The Oregon Ducks 2024 recruiting cycle has created a sudden whirlwind at the quarterback position that is beginning to lead to some clarity. 

First, however, it takes putting the puzzle pieces together:

April 11: Sunnyslope (Arizona) four-star quarterback Luke Moga sets commitment date for April 28, the weekend of Oregon's spring game

April 13: Oregon coaches/recruits cryptically hint at a commitment, but nothing new goes public (Luke Moga silent commitment?

April 15: St. Frances (Maryland) four-star quarterback Michael Van Buren visits Oregon

April 21: Van Buren announces top three of Maryland, Oregon and Penn State 

April 22: Moga visits Oregon

April 23: Van Buren announces return trip to Oregon for April 29 (spring game)

April 23: On3 reports Moga pushes back commitment date. Moga confirmed that plan with SBLive Sports on Monday and said he intends to visit Oregon this weekend.

So, what to make of all this?

First, Oregon needs a quarterback in the class of 2024 and there aren't many top options available nationally.

It's pretty clear that Van Buren and Moga are top targets for the Ducks.

It seems highly plausible that Moga was set to choose Oregon on Friday, but backed off.

Why? Either for his own reasons or because of the growing interest from Van Buren and some questions about whether or not he wants to be one of two quarterbacks in a single recruiting class.

Personally, I think Moga was a near-lock to choose Oregon, and I don't think he'd push back his decision date just because the Ducks made the top three for Van Buren.

Prediction: Michael Van Buren to Oregon Ducks

The combined actions of Moga (backing off his commitment date despite high interest in Oregon) and Van Buren (two visits this month) seem to indicate major momentum for "MVB to Oregon." 

Although Penn State seemed to be the heavy favorite for much of the spring, there's clearly a significant shift in Oregon's favor.

On3 certainly sees it that way, as the Ducks have quickly overtaken the Nittany Lions as the favorite to land Van Buren. 

While Van Buren has set a tentative commitment date for July 8, he was recently asked by Rivals if an earlier commitment could be forthcoming.

"Possibly," he said. "Definitely possibly earlier than that." 

It could be soon or it could take time, but it looks like Oregon has emerged as the team to beat for Van Buren. 

What would Oregon be getting?

Recruiting evaluators are split on the Under Armour All-American Game selection, but all four sites view him as (at least) a worthy future Power 5 conference starter. 

ESPN ranks him as the nation's No. 18 overall prospect and No. 2 quarterback, while 247Sports sees him as a three-star talent

On3 (nation's No. 289 overall prospect, No. 17 quarterback) and Rivals (nation's No. 59 overall, prospect No. 6 quarterback) land somewhere in the middle, projecting Van Buren as a bluechip talent. 

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